[Photo: Copyrighted © 2020, Jeff Glickman; FORGEM/iStock]
https://www.fastcompany.com/90502428/artificial-intelligence-beat-the-stock-market
In the news article, William D. Cohan describes a supercomputer near Seattle which is teaching itself to beat the stock market. Most of the financial engineers do not believe a machine will be able to predict the stock market because the data is too noisy and random (Cohan). However, Jeff Glickman with his firm, J4 Capital, has proven this wrong. For example, on May 7 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down almost 27% and many hedge funds were down by double digits, his firm with their supercomputer was almost at a 5% return (Cohan). Although Glickman does not have experience with the financial market as he is only a computer scientist, he has made a program that teaches itself what to predict using past data. He believes anything “unpredictable” can be predicted with simple machine algorithms (Cohan).
This article proves that with the right programming and data anything can be predicted. When Cohan talked about how the machine was able to get a 5% return when everything else was down during the unpredictable covid-19 crisis, I was in shock. How can in theory “just” a calculator predict the stock market. To me, this breakthrough can ruin the stock market. Why would anyone risk money in the stock money anymore when it can be predicted? There are still some questions left unanswered: can AI predict economic trends and other future trends. I truly believe that the days everyone looks to the stock market as a way of income will be gone, as the only way to be profitable in the market would be to be a machine.
This is a fascinating topic. If what Glickman says is true (anything “unpredictable” can be predicted with simple machine algorithms) than I think the least of our worries should be the stock market. If an algorithm can predict how people will react to something, than people in power could use this algorithm to manipulate the masses. I have to hope that Glickman is being overly ambitious about simple machine algorithms, because if he’s right the world could quickly become a dystopian society.
This is really impressive and almost scary that it is possible to create a machine with these predicting capabilities. Like you said, this could really impact those who work for a hedge fund. I think that with advancements of this type of machinery could lead to a single or few individuals selling the software to others
Andrija, this is remarkable. Suppose everyone started using this AI to invest with. Would people’s use of it become part of its data, skewing its results? As far as the plausibility, I know people doubted for a long time if a computer could learn chess, but now Watson beats the champions. It makes me want to invest with a firm using AI.
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